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Mastering Tennis Trading: Essential analysis and winning strategies to give you an edge in online tennis trading by Daniel Weston

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Laying Bad Servers

One type of trade that I like is opposing the very bad servers. My projected hold model enables me to identify these easily. A player that has a projected hold of below 64% (ATP) or below 50% (WTA) is a prime candidate for this trade and can be laid on pretty much all their service games.

As I mentioned previously, the market is still fairly unaware of this and tends to be far too orientated to starting price, which is then deviated by the current score.

Looking at the WTA stats for matches over the last year, I think the lowest projected hold I’ve ever seen was Rus against Errani in the first round of the French Open in 2013. It was 27% for Rus. She’d only held around 35% of her service games in the last three months and ...

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