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Mastering the Commodities Markets by Francesca Taylor

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Future Market Developments

Politicians like to describe situations as ‘fluid’ and in oil the pun is well defined. Oil is driven as much by politics as it is by fundamentals and by regulation as much as it is by speculation. There are many larger scale issues and we have yet to see how they will play out, but we will try to list some longer term issues to ponder, all of which could have a material effect on oil prices.

  • The continued US policy, irrespective of the party, on pursuit of non-reliance on foreign oil.
  • Continued tension between Israel and Iran and in the wider Middle East.
  • Potential for more civil unrest in some of the Arab nations.
  • Aggressive Russian policy towards pricing and control of their natural resources.
  • Further moves by China ...

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