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Mastering the Commodities Markets by Francesca Taylor

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OUTLOOK

So, what should we expect for the coming years? What is the market telling us? The outlook for metals demand is highly leveraged to the macroeconomy, and global GDP growth should give us a good overview of what to anticipate for base metal prices.

Dragged down by the euro crisis and current uncertainties, global growth is projected to be 3.3 per cent in 2012 and 3.9 per cent in 2013.50 In mid-2012 the advanced economies were growing at 1.2 per cent, whilst emerging countries were growing at 5.4 per cent. This was a full percentage point below the average growth rate from 1995 to 2008.

Can we expect China and India to play the ‘white knight’? Apparently not. Even if those two countries are assumed to grow at an impressive pace of 8.2 per ...

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