EVALUATING BASEBALL PITCHERS ANDFORECASTING FUTURE PERFORMANCE
In chapters 2–4 we discussed three methods that can be used to evaluate the performance of a baseball hitter: Runs Created, Linear Weights, and Monte Carlo simulation. Let's turn our attention to evaluating the performance of baseball pitchers. As we will see, evaluating their performance is no easy matter.
Until recently, the most frequently used technique for evaluating the performance of pitchers was earned run average (ERA). Let's consider a pitcher, again named Joe Hardy. Consider all the runners Joe allows to reach base. Any of the base runners who score or would have scored if Joe's team made no fielding miscues (such as an error, passed ball, and so forth) causes Joe ...