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Mathletics by Wayne L. Winston

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FOOTBALL STATES AND VALUES

In chapter 8 we discussed how the inning, score margin, outs, and runners on bases were sufficient data when trying to determine whether a baseball team would win a game (assuming two equal teams were playing.) For example, if a team is down by three runs in the top of the seventh inning with two outs and the bases loaded, it has a 15% chance of winning the game. We call the inning, score margin, outs, and runners on bases the state of the baseball game. Once we know the state of the game and have evaluated the chance of winning in each state, we can analyze strategies such as bunting or evaluate (as shown in chapter 8) batters and pitchers based on how they change the team's chance of winning the game.

Football ...

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