FROM POINT RATINGS TO PROBABILITIES
In chapter 40 we learned how to calculate “power ratings,” which allow us to estimate how many points one team is better than another.1 In this chapter we will show how to use power ratings to determine the probability that a team wins a game, covers a point spread bet, or covers a teaser bet. For NBA basketball, we will see how to use power ratings to determine the probability of each team winning a playoff series. At the end of the chapter we'll look at how power ratings can be used to compute the probability of each team winning the NCAA basketball tournament.
Using power ratings we would predict that the average amount by which a home team will win a game is given by home edge + home team rating—away ...