Chapter Five

Introduction to Dynamic Risk Analyses

Warren D. Seider*,1; Ankur Pariyani; Ulku G. Oktem*,; Ian Moskowitz; Jeffrey E. Arbogast; Masoud Soroush§    * University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States Near-Miss Management LLC, Philadelphia, PA, United States American Air Liquide, Newark, DE, United States§ Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, United States1 Corresponding author: email address: seider@seas.upenn.edu

Abstract

This chapter places recent advances in dynamic risk analyses in perspective. After some preliminary concepts such as alarms, near misses, and accidents, conventional risk analysis approaches are reviewed. Next, the use of Bayesian analysis in dynamic risk analysis without alarm data is discussed. ...

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