The uncertain and incomplete basis for decision making

When we try to find the solution to a problem, we rely on our experiences and the information which we have about the problem. The solutions which we come up with are then compared to our needs and a choice is made. We never have enough knowledge of the pieces of the puzzle at our disposal. Some information is incorrect. Our picture of reality is faulty and strongly influenced by preconceived opinions and value judgements.

Even if we had had every bit of information at our disposal, we would not have been able to calculate and compare all the thinkable alternatives. Just consider the fact that ten different pieces in a puzzle can be combined in 3,628,800 different ways. In order to be able ...

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