Estimation Markets

Rail travel at high speed is not possible, because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.

Dr. Dionysus Larder, professor of philosophy and astronomy, University College London, 1851

The atom bomb will never go off—and I speak as an expert in explosives.

—US Admiral William Leahy, 1945

PREDICTION MARKETS offer a probability that an event will take place. That probability changes over time as circumstances change; for example, as a presidential election campaign rolls out. What is the chance of Joe Biden being replaced as the vice presidential nominee?

There is another set of markets, where each outcome has a determinably correct answer, one that does not change over time. The challenge for an investor ...

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