Becoming an Oracle

I would never have seen it had I not believed it.

A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.

—Marshall McLuhan, cultural guru

WHY DON’T PREDICTION MARKETS have more universal acceptance in situations where people do want to know? There are a few cases where markets have been tried and met with little support. Few people know of these instances, so that is not the answer. Some research is required to understand best practices for running a market, but a smart tech employee could solve that problem in a week. Beyond the implementation issues are problems of corporate culture and problems of people.

The most intractable problem involves convincing executives that their own ...

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