How to Make Sense of Weak Signals

There’s no sense in denying it: interpreting weak signals into useful decision making takes time and focus. These three stages can help you see the periphery—and act on it—much more clearly.

“When people stumble onto the truth they usually pick themselves up and hurry about their business.” —attributed to Winston Churchill

It’s the question everyone wants answered: Why did so many smart people miss the signs of the collapse of the subprime market? As early as 2001, there were many danger signals about the impending housing bubble and the rampant use of derivatives. Yet these signals were largely ignored by such financial players as Northern Rock, Countrywide, ...

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