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Practical Predictive Analytics
book

Practical Predictive Analytics

by Ralph Winters
June 2017
Beginner to intermediate content levelBeginner to intermediate
576 pages
15h 22m
English
Packt Publishing
Content preview from Practical Predictive Analytics

Modifying the model to include a trend component

Earlier, we added a linear trend line to the data. If we wanted to incorporate a linear trend into the forecast as well, we can substitute A for the second parameter (trend parameter), which yields an "AAN" model (Holt's linear trend). This type of method allows exponential smoothing with a trend:

fit <- ets(x, model = "AAN")summary(fit) > ETS(A,A,N) > > Call:> ets(y = x, model = "AAN") > > Smoothing parameters:> alpha = 0.0312 > beta = 0.0312 > > Initial states:> l = 0.1641 > b = -0.0021 > > sigma: 0.0042> > AIC AICc BIC > -108.5711 -104.1267 -106.0149 > > Training set error measures:> ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE> Training set -0.000290753 0.004157744 0.003574276 -0.2632899 2.40212> MASE ACF1> Training ...
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Publisher Resources

ISBN: 9781785886188Supplemental Content