Predicting Human Decision-Making

CHAPTER 3

Predicting Human Decision-Making

“All models are wrong, but some are useful”

Gorge Box

Designing intelligent agents that interact proficiently with people necessitates the prediction of human decision-making. We present and discuss three prediction paradigms for predicting human decision-making which are common in many real world application fields. These paradigms are illustrated and compared across a wide variety of domains and applications in Chapter 4.

3.1  EXPERT-DRIVEN PARADIGM

An expert-driven model for predicting human decision-making is a mathematical formulation, articulated by an expert, which is assumed to adequately predict people’s choices in a given setting or across different settings.

Experts of different disciplines ...