Predicting Malicious Behavior: Tools and Techniques for Ensuring Global Security

Chapter 18

Analyzing Future Malicious Behavior

This is an important chapter. The preceding chapters provide the foundation for understanding the nuances underlying accurate prediction of future malicious behavior. This chapter will introduce the concepts to better understand the contexts within which future behavior occurs and not just prediction of specific behavior. Because we have been conditioned to focus only on behavior, if we do consider prediction of future adversarial behavior, then we tend to think:

• What malicious behavior will occur next?
• When will the next malicious behavior occur?
• Where will the next malicious behavior occur?
• Who will be the focus, or victim, of the malicious behavior?
• How will the next malicious behavior occur?

These are exceedingly important questions. Why? Because if we can predict the future occurrence of malicious behavior accurately, then we can prevent that actual occurrence. Doing so seems to be the ultimate goal. If we afford ourselves the luxury of accepting the notion that we can predict future behavior, we are obviously going to focus on what actual behaviors will be predicted.

However, because automated behavior analysis (AuBA) methodology results in the prediction of future behavior by requiring the antecedent-behavior-consequence sequence, we can also add a number of other features to predicting future behavior, such as:

• To what events and situations will the target respond in the future?
• What are the projected characteristics of ...