Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition

317 A Review of Cost Uncertainty Analysis

8.5 From the m trials of the lognormal random variable X generated from

Exercise 8.4, compare and contrast the true values of the fractiles

x

0.69

, x

0.70

, x

0.71

with their estimated values x

ˆ

0.69

, x

ˆ

0.70

, x

ˆ

0.71

generated by

the Monte Carlo simulation.

References

Dienemann, P. F. 1966. Estimating Uncertainty Using Monte Carlo Techniques,

RM-4854-PR. Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation.

GAO, 2009. Cost estimating and assessment guide: Best practices for developing and

managing capital program costs, GAO-09-3SP, March 2009.

Garvey, P. R., B. J. Flynn, P. Braxton, and R.