Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition

12

Enhanced Scenario-Based Method

This chapter presents the last formal method for cost uncertainty anal-

ysis discussed in this book. Called the enhanced scenario-based method

(eSBM), it was developed from a need in the cost analysis community to sim-

plify aspects of probability-based approaches. This chapter describes eSBM,

identies key features that distinguish it from other methods, and provides

illustrative examples.

12.1 Introduction

The enhanced scenario-based method (eSBM) was created as an alterna-

tive to the use of advanced statistical methods for generating measures of

cost risk.

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A central feature