Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition

1

Uncertainty and the Role of Probability in

Cost Analysis

1.1 Introduction and Historical Perspective

This book presents methods for quantifying the cost impacts of uncertainty in

the engineering of systems. The term “systems” is used in this book to include

physical systems (those that occupy physical space [Blanchard and Fabrycky

1990]) and today’s globally networked systems that enable communication

and information exchanges to uncountably many users.

Systems engineering is a process that encompasses the scientic and engi-

neering efforts needed to develop, produce, and sustain systems. Systems

engineering is a highly complex ...