Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition

416 Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis

eSBM algorithms, then the correlations implied by those programs

are implicitly captured in the analysis.

• Supports a wide range of parameter sensitivity analyses. This facili-

tates traceability and focuses attention on key risk events identied

in the written scenarios that have the potential to drive cost higher

than expected.

In summary, eSBM emphasizes a careful and deliberative approach to cost

uncertainty analysis—one that also encourages the incorporation of program

cost growth histories into its algorithms. eSBM requires the development of

scenarios that represent the ...