Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition

421 Cost Uncertainty Analysis Practice Points

To be credible, subjective probabilities should only be assigned to events

by subject matter experts—persons with signicant experience with events

similar to the one under consideration. Instead of assigning a single subjec-

tive probability to an event, subject experts often nd it easier to describe

a function that depicts a distribution of probabilities. Such a distribution

is sometimes called a subjective probability distribution. Subjective prob-

ability distributions are governed by the same mathematical properties of

probability distributions associated ...