January 2016
Intermediate to advanced
524 pages
17h 3m
English
book
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition
by Paul R. Garvey, Stephen A. Book, Raymond P. Covert
Content preview from Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition
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Y = P
r
Staff Months
50,000 61,000 80,000 100,000
X = I
200
313
410
500
610
800
159.74
X
Y
121.95
100
I
P
r
P (Eff
SW
≤ 313) = 0.05
P (Eff
SW
≤ 410) = 0.25
P (Eff
SW
≤ 500) = 0.50
P (Eff
SW
≤ 610) = 0.75
P (Eff
SW
≤ 800) = 0.95
–
–
Eff
SW
=
300
x
1
1
50, 000
2
P(Eff
SW
≤ 300) =
2
· (200
2
) du 0.0333
5 10
6
( )
u
250
−
=
This result is consistent with Example 5.3. The probability Eff
SW
≤
610 staff months is
500
P(Eff
≤ 610)
SW
=
x
1
1
·
2
5 10
6
( )
250
2
(200
) −
50, 000
2
du
u
610
x
1
1
100, 000
2
+
2
· − (100
2
) du
5(10
6
)
u
500
= 0.50 + 0.250656 ≈ 0.75
A family of boundary curves for Eff
is
SW
presented in Figure 5.21.
Shown are values