January 2016
Intermediate to advanced
524 pages
17h 3m
English
book
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition
by Paul R. Garvey, Stephen A. Book, Raymond P. Covert
Content preview from Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition
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m
i k
100
0.400 0.600
2,000
0.478 0.522
5,000
0.486
0.514
10,000
0.490
0.510
30,000 0.494
0.506
50,000
0.496
0.504
Sample size m
0.4
0.5
0.6
k
i
100 10,000 30,000 50,000
253 System Cost Uncertainty Analysis
6.3.2 Sample Size for Monte Carlo Simulations
In Monte Carlo simulations, a question frequently asked is “How many trials
(the sample size) are necessary to have condence in the outputs of the sim-
ulation?” Morgan and Henrion (1990) provide a guideline for determining
sample size as a function of the precision desired in the outputs of a Monte
Carlo simulation. Specically, formulas are presented to address the