January 2016
Intermediate to advanced
524 pages
17h 3m
English
book
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition
by Paul R. Garvey, Stephen A. Book, Raymond P. Covert
Content preview from Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis, 2nd Edition
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276 Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis
The density function of Cost
Sys
conditioned on a system schedule of 35.65
months is normal, with mean 33,954.18 ($K) and variance 10,342,359.87 ($K)
2
To nd a such that P(Cost
Sys
≤ a
.
PrgmSched = 35.65 ) = 0.95, let
P(Cost
Sys
≤ a
a−33,954.18
where φ =
√
PrgmSched = 35.65 ) = P(Z ≤ φ)
10,342,359.87
. From Table A.1, P(Z ≤ φ) = 0.95 if
a − 33, 954.18
φ =
√
= 1.645
10, 342, 359.87
This implies that a = 39, 244.4. Thus, the cost of the digital information system
that has only a 5% chance of being exceeded, when conditioned on a schedule
having the same chance of being exceeded, ...