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Quantitative Investing: Strategies to exploit stock market anomalies for all investors by Fred Piard

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Conclusion

Is investment a science or an art?

Certainly both, and each investor has to find his or her own balance of the two. Although intuition and inspiration are key for many successful investors, most of them rely on indicators, calculations, methods and systems. Using indicators and modelization should be based on the hope to get a reproducible result with a probability and a confidence interval. The two most important words of this sentence are “should” and “hope”.

“Should” because many traders and investors don’t know the statistics and probabilities associated with the indicators and models they are using. Who knows the real probabilities behind a double top pattern, or a doji candlestick? They may be worse than you think.

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