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Rational Decisions by Ken Binmore

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8

Epistemology

8.1 Knowledge

Philosophers traditionally treat knowledge as justified true belief, and then argue about what their definition means. This chapter contributes little to this debate, because it defends an entirely different way of thinking about knowledge. However, before describing the approach to knowledge that I think most useful in decision theory, it is necessary to review Bayesian epistemology—the study of how knowledge is treated in Bayesian decision theory.

8.2 Bayesian Epistemology

When Pandora uses Bayes’ rule to update her prior probability prob(E) of an event E to a posterior probability prob(E|F) on learning that the event F has occurred, everybody understands that we are taking for granted that she has received a signal ...

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