A production system in a processing plant is to be designed. Two alternative systems are being considered: and . Alternative consists of one production line, while alternative has two lines a and b. To provide a basis for choosing an alternative, an analysis is carried out, calculating the expected production and risk.
The analysis should provide a nuanced description of risk, that is, a description that covers , with reference to the terminology introduced in Chapter 2. The analysis may be alternatively referred to as a production assurance analysis, or a production availability analysis (ISO 2008, Hjorteland et al. 2007, Aven and Pedersen 2014).
A model-based analysis is used in this case. The investment in the two production lines is significant, and management requires a solid decision-making basis. In this case, the example has been much simplified, to allow for simple hand calculations. For more comprehensive cases, Monte Carlo simulations ...