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Risk Analysis, 2nd Edition by Terje Aven

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Chapter 9Production assurance

A production system in a processing plant is to be designed. Two alternative systems are being considered: c09-math-0001 and c09-math-0002. Alternative c09-math-0003 consists of one production line, while alternative c09-math-0004 has two lines a and b. To provide a basis for choosing an alternative, an analysis is carried out, calculating the expected production and risk.

9.1 Planning

The analysis should provide a nuanced description of risk, that is, a description that covers c09-math-0005, with reference to the terminology introduced in Chapter 2. The analysis may be alternatively referred to as a production assurance analysis, or a production availability analysis (ISO 2008, Hjorteland et al. 2007, Aven and Pedersen 2014).

A model-based analysis is used in this case. The investment in the two production lines is significant, and management requires a solid decision-making basis. In this case, the example has been much simplified, to allow for simple hand calculations. For more comprehensive cases, Monte Carlo simulations ...

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