3.7. Evaluation of the state of risk analysis methodology

Results of a QRA calculation should be considered with caution because uncertainty is larger than an order of magnitude. Twice at the European Union level, a benchmark exercise was organized to evaluate risk analysis models; the second EU project ASSURANCE is most relevant. This risk analysis project, published by Lauridsen et al.,99 was performed by seven highly experienced teams for an ammonia storage plant with loading/unloading operations. For this exercise, the plant was “virtually” located in Denmark. The teams were asked to perform a complete risk analysis so that all variability factors were included. Although the spread in results had decreased as compared to a similar exercise ...

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