Risk Analysis and Human Behavior

INTRODUCTION

I was drawn to studying risks because the problems are so messy. They require understanding both people and problems. They require understanding questions of both fact and values. They require grappling with uncertainties about both the world (what can happen) and oneself (what do I want). They require both learning from others and challenging their views. They require both critical analysis (not taking claims at face value) and constructive synthesis (not being paralyzed by complications). They require mastery of both form (general decision rules) and substance (specific risky processes). Even when there are formulae for calculating some aspects of a risk decision, there is nothing formulaic about their application. Seemingly straightforward ...