Risk Analysis and Human Behavior

4

INDIVIDUALS’ DECISIONS AFFECTING RADIATION EXPOSURE AFTER A NUCLEAR EXPLOSION

H. Keith Florig and Baruch Fischhoff

© 2007 Health Physics Society

In the aftermath of a nuclear attack, shelters can offer potentially important protection. How well they fill that role depends on a set of interdependent decisions made by the individuals and organizations that must prepare and use them. We look at three such decisions. For each, we begin with formal analysis of the consequences expected from different possible actions. Those analyses are, then, reviewed in terms of how individuals facing these choices will perceive them, given the information that they are likely to have. The first example suggests that preparing a home shelter according to guidelines ...