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probability that some undesirable event with a negative consequence will occur.
is is valid for the risk related to accidents (e.g., gas pipeline explosion). Intelligence
formulation involving risk is to include most possible factors that will be inuenced
and should identify the consequences. e probabilities of occurrence can then be
computed using a stochastic model to characterize the events, engagements, and
the perceived risk intuitively. A salient technique to delineate the alternative out-
comes that involve risk is the event tree analysis, as shown in Figure 7.6a through d.
Table 7. 8