Risk Assessment: Tools, Techniques, and Their Applications

3.3 Credible Consequences

In a meeting in 1990, a group of new engineers sat around a table and discussed the possible risks to a research reactor in the middle of the desert and the possible consequences. One possible scenario was a large commercial airliner crashing into the reactor. On discussing the scenario, there was laughter in the room. On the morning of September 11, 2001 that scenario became not just a “what if” but a real disaster. Therefore, when determining the possible set of credible consequences of which to consider risk, ask at least the following questions:

1. What are all the known hazards?

2. What are all the possible events involving these hazards?

3. Have these events occurred before?

4. How frequently have these events occurred?

5. What happens when these events occur?

6. How severe are the consequences of these events?

7. How hard is it to clean up the mess left by the event?

8. Who ultimately pays for the cleanup?

9. What values does the organization consider important?

Always involve a team of subject matter experts when developing lists of possible consequences. The Delphi method discussed in Chapter 7 is a good tool to aid in these types of activities. Never dismiss a consequence until it is proven to be not credible. Then consider all the credible consequences when performing the risk assessment.