Risk Assessment: Tools, Techniques, and Their Applications

15.3 Simplified PRA Procedure

Dr. Micheal G. Stamatelatos (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA) presentation, “Risk Assessment and Management, Tools and Applications,” summarized a methodology flow for PRA. These steps are summarized as follows:

1. identification of end states of interest;

2. system familiarization and data collection;

3. identification, selection, and screening of initiation events;

4. definition and modeling of all scenarios linking each initiating event to the end states;

5. modeling of pivotal events;

6. risk quantification for each pivotal event and scenario; risk aggregation for all like end states;

7. full uncertainty analysis; sensitivity analysis as needed;

8. risk importance ranking (2).