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Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models by Alan R. Jones

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3 Monte Carlo Simulation and other random thoughts

Many seasoned estimating practitioners will tell you that a Range Estimate is always better than a single-point deterministic estimate. (We have a better chance of being right, or less chance of being wrong, if we are one of those ‘glass is half-empty’ people!)

If we create a Range Estimate (or 3-Point Estimate) using Monte Carlo Simulation we are in effect estimating with random numbers (… and I’ve lost count of the number of Project Managers who have said, ‘Isn’t that how you estimators usually do it?’).

A word (or two) from the wise?

'The generation of random numbers is too important to be left to chance.'

Robert R. Coveyou American Research Mathematician Oak Ridge National Laboratory 1915-1996 ...

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