O: Observe Your System

Model the forces that keep your current system stable to determine what would cause it to change and what would cause it to break.

On April 10, 2020, Marguerite McDonald was one of the first people in the United States to die of Covid-19. Like many of the pandemic’s victims in its early months, she lived in a nursing home.

In many ways, the setting where she lived should have been among the safer places on earth in a pandemic. A nursing home is a nearly self-contained environment, with excellent hygiene, on-site medical services, and residents who rarely leave. Covid-19 originated on the other side of the planet, and its existence and dangers had been known for months. The United States is the world leader in medical ...

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