CHAPTER 1MEGATRENDS THAT ARE RESHAPING THE WORLD
Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won't come in.
—Isaac Asimov, writer and professor of biochemistry
There are certain periods and moments throughout history where significant change and trends have occurred, yet leaders failed to respond to them prior to their impact – often caught out by continuing to think and operate in outdated ways.
Take World War I, for example – the course of events had started to be shaped over 160 years earlier, as the first Industrial Revolution got underway.
In response to the need to find efficient ways to scale production, British manufacturers invented game-changing technologies, such as steam locomotives for army transport, ironclad steam-powered warships, and cast-iron cannons. Enabled by advancements in metal-shaping precision, the United States, Germany, and France brought in the first machine guns and rapid-fire rifles.
These technological changes disrupted the business-as-usual routines in militaries across the world. However, many leaders failed to shift their thinking and approach and were slow to respond even when the stark new reality of war was brutally apparent. The French army, for example, was still using the same drill formations and colourful uniforms as they had been 100 years previously, but now they were sending their troops to face machine guns in those bright blue coats, red trousers, and plumed helmets: a tragic ...
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