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Simple But Not Easy: An Autobiographical and Biased Book About Investing by Richard Oldfield

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Chapter 12 – The folly of forecasting

Managing money does not involve tremendous prescience. It requires the commonsense to be doubtful about the flawed prescience of others.

Forecasting markets

One of the things which investment managers are expected to do is to make predictions. James and Alvilde Lees-Milne, writers and aesthetes, were once accosted by their neighbour and landlord the late Duke of Beaufort, furious after their dogs had caused some disturbance to his hunting. “What is the point of you Lees-Milnes? You don’t shoot, you don’t hunt. What is the blasted point of you?” Sensible investment managers who refused to predict might feel somewhat in the position, mutatis mutandis, of the Lees-Milnes. “You don’t make predictions, you ...

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