Simulation and Wargaming

3Using Combat Models for Wargaming

Joseph M. Saur¹

Taurus TeleSYS, Yorktown, Virgnia, USA

“All models are wrong but some are useful.” ²

‘In 2015, the Military Operations Research Society (MORS) held a three‐day conference in Tysons Corner to examine the relationship between combat models and wargaming. Was wargaming not sufficiently “rigorous”? Could wargames be made more repeatable? Could the results be quantified somehow? To all of these charges, Dr. Bill Lademan, Director of Wargaming, Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory (MCWL) had one answer: “Wargaming is not broken; don’t try to fix it!”

In truth, comparing combat models to wargames is somewhat akin to comparing hammers to screwdrivers: They both have their legitimate uses; they are not easily interchangeable, and the choice of one or the other depends on the specific circumstances being addressed. Combat models can be very useful if one needs to understand the potential impact of a proposed change to the status quo: the impact of a proposed new weapons system, the wisdom of adopting new tactics, or the danger of a potential kinetic conflict. Wargames, on the other hand, are most useful when attempting to understand the factors and issues surrounding a potential conflict, when ensuring that our plans cover all (or at least most!) possible enemy moves, and when training leaders to understand their tactical and strategic options in a given scenario.

To better understand these two options, we will look at three things: ...