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Snap Judgment: When to Trust Your Instincts, When to Ignore Them, and How to Avoid Making Big Mistakes with Your Money by David E. Adler

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11. Timing Stocks

It’s almost impossible to time the market. A few hedge funds did it successfully during the tech bubble, riding it both and up and down. A lot of hedge funds did it unsuccessfully during the credit bubble, riding it profitably on the way up only to be smashed to pieces on the way down. In general, almost no one can predict whatever they may claim, whether the Dow or S&P 500 will go up or go down, or when precisely the market will turn. Although everyone would like to know if it is a “good time to buy” because we are at a market bottom, or a “good time to sell” because we are at a market top, market timing, as any financial planner or Wall Street pro will tell you, is something to avoid.

But if you can’t time the market, this ...

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