The Linear Model Approach
Barring some fundamental change, it’s reasonable to assume that things will continue the way they are going. What you’ve done is what you’ll do. If we project that our achievement will continue at the same rate, then we’re using a linear model. The accomplishment over time is a straight line on a graph. Ignoring all other influences, a linear model assumes that time is the dominant variable in calculating progress.
In Extreme Programming, this assumption was given the name Yesterday’s Weather based on the idea that today’s weather is likely to be substantially like yesterday’s. If you use that to make your morning prediction, you’ll be correct about two-thirds of the time. That’s pretty good for such a cheap and easy ...
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