Learning from the Situation
Estimates can be used for more than simple prediction and tracking of progress. It’s so discouraging when people treat estimates as a one-time chance to guess the future. The odds of winning that game are very low, indeed. Using estimates as your current best idea of that future is more helpful. And using them as a stake in the ground to detect changes in what you think you know is even more so.
There’s little to be learned by the fact that estimates are wrong, but they can help you notice when things are not as they should be or, at least, not as you thought they should be. “Incorrect estimates” are not very useful when considered as failures, but are a goldmine of potential information and insight. It’s instructive ...
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