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uncertainty, reliance on expert judgment, and incomplete information
that are pervasive in soware engineering.
7.2 BAYES THEOREM AND BAYESIAN NETWORKS
While Section 7.1 provided the rationale for using causal models rather
than purely statistically driven models, it provided no actual mechanism
for doing so. e necessary mechanism is driven by Bayes theorem, which
provides us with a rational means of updating our belief in some unknown
hypothesis in light of new or additional evidence (i.e., observed metrics).
At their core, all of the decision and prediction problems identied so
far incorporate the basic ...