book

Supertrends

by Lars Tvede

February 2020

Beginner to intermediate

304 pages

7h 26m

English

Wiley

Audiobook available

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Are you a feeler or a thinker?Hedgehogs and foxes – which are best at seeing the future?No! As in never!Our knowledge at double speedThe creative design fieldThe world's a much better place than people think
The West versus the restPopulation growth is actually decreasing rapidlyHuge growth in prosperity continuesA massive elderly boomDepopulation of rural areasIncreased global equality and local inequality – but will this continue?A more peaceful worldThe lost billion people – the world's biggest problem?
CRISPR – the new genetic word processingNew genetically engineered speciesRecreation of extinct species – the real Jurassic ParkTomorrow's genetically modified humansA healthier, safer worldRevolutions in the fight against cancerNew cells for old livesWearables, self-diagnoses, biohacking, and lifestyle medicineThe intelligent healthcare of the future
From exceptional to magicalBell's Law of new computer classesCloud computing and the as-a-service movementAI – the career cul-de-sac that suddenly got hotIoT – nerve fibres for the mechanical worldBig data = big dealSmart robots – the new ecosystemSmart remote control – the magic wands of realityQuantum computers – billions of times fasterVR – dream worlds for realAR – Pokémon GO on steroidsAmbient user experience – the frictionless total experiencesCyberattack – crime-as-a-service and lots more besidesThe new stalker economy
Fossil fuels – the culmination is approachingVast, constantly growing reservesNuclear power – a renaissance on the way?Nuclear fusion – the ultimate energy solution
Innovation, dear friends. Innovation!Ideas – the ultimate resourceMeat produced without animalsGreater prosperity, better environmentGlobal warming in perspectiveThe world is actually getting greenerThe sixth mass extinction?
Geosocialisation. Who – and where! – you areThe e-commerce revolution – far from overInfluencer marketingThe wild decentralised autonomous organisationsBlockchain – the Internet of ValueThe rating economy – good for markets and cultureThe global village and its new cyber rock starsShare, care, and save (sharing economy) – hot, hot, hotExponential organisations: big money!
The transport of the future – faster and more flexibleInnovation in the construction sectorTomorrow's jet-set nomads

The experience economy – all the world becomes a stageThe changeable idea of prestigeSelf-realisation – the service in which you are the productInnovation and entrepreneurship – self-realisation that gets cheaperDo-it-yourself and maker movements – working for funThe human cloud – total transformation of the labour marketMore backsourcingBespoke mediaMulti-identities are more acceptableIntelligence amplification – better, more flexible education
Impulsive organisationsConformist organisationsAchievement organisationsPluralist organisationsEvolutionary organisationsNew technologies create new forms of managementThe new information paradigm: seek–sense–shareWhat should be kept permanent and what should be done flexibly?Delegation – activate the staffInvolvement – make use of your meta-organisationInclusion: mobilise the whole world for your projectAlgorithm-based management versus human management
Three social standard patterns that often undermine civilisationsThe future welfare society – pyramid states or agile app stores?The battle for top–down management and decentralisationOpenness or closedness?The information problem in public managementGovernment as a platform: small government – big servicesThe growing attraction of basic incomeValue-based public management – good or bad?

Content preview from Supertrends

11.THE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF TOMORROW'S TECHNOLOGIES

Just as technological development has led to new forms of management in private companies, across the ages it has also influenced political development. Just think of the political effect of the Industrial Revolution. Industrialisation generated unprecedented increases in prosperity, which had an infinite number of positive effects for both states and their citizens. However, the new technologies also generated long, inscrutable value chains. These led to increased specialisation, so people no longer understood one another's lives and jobs to the same extent as before. Under these new framework conditions, three new principal philosophies emerged: Liberalism, Socialism, and Fascism – besides their many spin-offs, including Anarchism, Communism, and National Socialism. These societal models clashed and led to a great deal of violence and suffering.

The reason for mentioning this, of course, is that the technological and commercial predictions I have tackled in this book will also have political implications that we must include in our thoughts about how the future may proceed. This chapter is my take on the subject.

Three social standard patterns that often undermine civilisations

Before really going into the specific political implications, I would like to underline three permanent phenomena in civilisations, which I will believe will have a significant impact on political development in the decades to come: (1) the ...