The Elevator Pitch
Because much has been written about supply chain planning, a natural question arises about what is new in this book. For the benefit of the impatient reader, I highlight here certain key ideas that I believe have not received adequate attention elsewhere.
- Focus on forecast bias. The metrics typically presented in operations management textbooks to evaluate the quality of a forecast are the mean absolute deviation (MAD), the mean squared error (MSE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). While there is a place for these metrics in forecast accuracy reporting within a company, I believe these metrics largely miss the point, which is that most often the biggest problems in forecasting arise because ...