Systems Engineering for the Digital Age

Chapter 18Complexity and Risk in Systems Engineering

Roshanak R. Nilchiani

Stevens Institute of Technology, School of Systems and Enterprises, Hoboken, NJ, USA

Prelude

The word “Complexity” is perhaps one of the most frequently used words in systems engineering and yet it is one of the least researched and studied fundamental characteristics of many engineered and natural systems. Complexity can manifest itself in the form of an amazing, sophisticated functioning order in an engineered system or the opposite, an invading entropy that disrupts, damages, or jeopardizes the function and performance of an engineered system. Risk and opportunity, on the other hand, have been viewed as an ever‐existing concept that affects all phases of the lifecycle of an engineered system and is closely coupled with uncertainty. Traditionally, risk is associated with the likelihood of negative consequences of an event (Haskins et al. 2006; Simpleman et al. 2003). Complex engineered systems face various inherent as well as exogenous/environmental uncertainties, which a considerable portion of them is due to the nature of the complexity they carry. Even more simple engineered systems face various types of risks due to ambient or environmental risks that affect their life cycle. Whether the system contains a sophisticated complex order or a disorder that can propagate, both types of complexities contribute to uncertainties and emergence and as a result, a consequence of a desired or undesirable event. ...