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Technological Change and the Environment by Arnulf Grübler

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Chapter 10

Modeling Uncertainty of InducedTechnological Change

Andrii Gritsevskyi and Nebojsa Nakicenovic

10.1   Introduction

This chapter presents a new method for modeling induced technological learning and uncertainty in energy systems. Three related features are introduced simultaneously: (1) increasing returns to scale for the costs of new technologies; (2) clusters of linked technologies that induce learning depending on their technological “proximity” and the technology relations through the structure of the energy system; and (3) uncertain costs of all technologies and energy sources.

The energy systems-engineering model MESSAGE developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) was modified to include these ...

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