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The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007 by Kerry Balenthiran

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Chapter 2: Business Cycles — A Historical Perspective

The disadvantage of men not knowing the past is that they do not know the present.

G. K. Chesterton

There is a tendency among people to disregard the past, a belief that the past is history and that it has no role in terms of learning about the future. Past behaviour, in terms of markets and people, can be very insightful in terms of anticipating the future course of action.

Our understanding of business cycles doesn’t appear to have improved significantly since the Great Depression. Prior to 2007 there was a general complacency that the business cycle had been tamed and this complacency arguably contributed to the banking crisis.

The banking crisis of 2007/8 was by no means a one off ...

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