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The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007 by Kerry Balenthiran

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Chapter 4: Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle

Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth. We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be a result of chance or coincidence.

Jeffery Hirsch and Yale Hirsch, The Stock Trader’s Almanac

At this point it is briefly worth recapping what has been covered so far:

  • In chapter 1 we saw that studies have confirmed the existence of regular cycles in commodities and stocks that average 18 years in duration, and these cycles alternate between commodities and stocks in terms of outperformance.
  • In chapter 2 we saw that ...

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