This book explains all of the major factors that directly impact the financial sector--and how you can invest wisely with this information. It includes valuable explanations and analysis about all of the terms you hear everyday in the news--gross domestic product, factory orders, unemployment claims, consumer reports, housing starts and more. You’ll also learn about the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy.
Table of Contents
1. Economic Indicators and You
1. Economic Indicators: A High Impact on Markets and You
- Getting in the Game
- Consensus Forecasts: The Experts Weigh In
- News Affecting the Impact of Economic Indicators
- So, What Am I Looking For?
- The Key Financial Markets
- Is This Good News or Bad News?
- Prepping Before an Indicator News Release
2. Basics About Indicators and Business Cycles
- Business Cycles Matter
- Picking the Start and End of Recession
- What Causes a Recession?
- Key Facts About Leading Indicators
- What Are Important Cyclical Characteristics?
- Market Focus on the Leading Economic Indicators Report
- Key Forms of Economic Data—Starting with Levels
- What Are Seasonally Adjusted Numbers?
- 3. Gross Domestic Product: The Big Picture
4. GDP and Monthly Indicators
- Monthly Indicators and GDP Components
- Investment Fundamentals
- Monthly Source Data for GDP
- GDP Price Indexes
- GDP Measured by Income
- Market Reaction to the GDP News Release
- 1. Economic Indicators: A High Impact on Markets and You
2. The Consumer in the Economy
5. The Employment Report
- The Employment Report Sets the Tone
- Key Facts About the Employment Report
- The Components of Payroll Employment Data
- Comparing Household and Establishment Employment
- Comparison of Household and Establishment Employment Surveys
- Other Key Payroll Series
- Use of Payroll Employment Data in Other Economic Indicators
- How Financial Markets React to the Employment Report
6. More Employment Indicators
- Other Employment Data
- Key Facts About the Unemployment Claims Report
- Key Facts About the ADP Employment Report
- How Financial Markets View ADP Employment
- Key Facts About the Monster Employment Index
- Market Focus on the Monster News Release
7. Retail Sales: Going Malling and More
- Key Facts for the Retail Sales Report
- Retail Sales, the Business Cycle, and Price Factors
- The Number of New Motor Vehicle Sales
- Key Facts from the Vehicle Sales Reports
- Motor Vehicle Sales and the Economy
- Buy American—Even If It’s an Import!
- How Markets Move on the News Release of Unit New Auto Sales
- Key Facts for Weekly Numbers on Retail Sales
- How Financial Markets React to Weekly Sales Numbers
8. Personal Income: Don’t Spend It All in One Place
- What Is Personal Income?
- Key Facts About the Personal Income Report
- What’s Left? Personal Saving
- What Are the Differences Between PCEs and Retail Sales?
- PCE Price Indexes: The Fed Is Watching!
- Special Events and Personal Income, Spending, and Price Indexes
- How Markets Move on the News Release
9. Consumer Sentiment and Confidence
- The Two Consumer Attitude Surveys
- The Consumer Sentiment Index
- The Consumer Confidence Index
- How Markets Move on Release of Sentiment and Confidence
- 5. The Employment Report
3. Inflation Numbers
10. Consumer and Producer Price Inflation
- So, What Is Inflation?
- The Consumer Price Index Report
- Quality Adjustments: Understating Real Costs
- Uses of the CPI
- Headline vs. Core CPI
- The Misery Index
- Key Facts About the Producer Price Index
- Comparison of Price Indexes
- Market Reaction to the CPI and PPI News Releases
11. What About Inflation from Labor Costs?
- The Importance of Productivity for the Economy
- Key Facts About the Productivity and Costs Report
- Key Facts About the Employment Cost Index Report
- The Key ECI Series
- Productivity and Costs Report vs. the ECI
- Market Reaction to Productivity and ECI Reports
12. Oil, Gold, and Other Commodities Prices
- Basics on Commodities and Inflation
- Oil—The Commodity That Makes or Breaks Inflation
- Commodity Price Indexes
- Gold as a Commodity
- 10. Consumer and Producer Price Inflation
4. Housing and Construction
13. Housing Starts: Keeping Homebuilders Busy
- Housing Starts: The Rock Star of Housing Data
- Who Cares About Housing Starts?
- Housing Starts Move the Financial Markets
- Key Facts About the Housing Starts Report
- Housing Starts: A Roller Coaster Within the Economy
- How Markets Move on the News Release
- Sneak Peek: Where Are Housing Starts Headed?
- Effects of Changes in Building Codes
- Key Facts About the Construction Spending Report
- Construction Expenditures and Market Reaction
14. Home Sales: Is Your Real Estate Broker Happy?
- Why Existing Home Sales Are Important
- Used Home Sales—No Hammers, But Big Impact
- Key Facts for Existing Home Sales
- Why Prefer Median Home Sales Prices to Average Prices?
- Developers’ Delight: New Single-Family Home Sales
- Key Facts for New Home Sales
- Home Sales and Market Reaction
- Home Values, Housing Activity, and the Economy
- What Are the Traditional House Price Indexes?
- Key Facts for the Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- Key Facts for the FHFA House Price Index
- What Do Markets Watch for in House Price Indexes?
15. Early Warnings on Housing
- Key Facts About the Pending Home Sales Index
- Key Facts About the Housing Market Index (HMI)
- Key Facts About the MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
- Market Reaction to the Reports
- 13. Housing Starts: Keeping Homebuilders Busy
5. Manufacturing and International Trade
16. Industrial Production: Keeping the Assembly Lines Running
- Key Facts About the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report
- The Key Components of the Industrial Production Index
- Key Facts About the Durable Goods Orders Report
- Key Facts About the Factory Orders Report
17. Manufacturing Surveys: An Early Glimpse
- The ISM Manufacturing Report
- Key Facts About the ISM Manufacturing Index
- Market Reaction to the ISM Manufacturing News Releases
Federal Reserve District Manufacturing Surveys
- Key Facts About the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
- Philly Fed Diffusion Indexes
- The Philly Fed Headline and Prices Indexes
- Key Facts About the New York Fed’s Manufacturing Survey
- Market Reaction to the Philly Fed and Empire State News Releases
- Key Facts About Other Regional Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Surveys
- Non-Manufacturing Surveys
18. International Trade: How Our Dollars Come and Go Overseas
- Key Facts About the International Trade Report
- More Facts About the International Trade Report
- Key Facts About the Import and Export Prices Report
- Key Facts About the Treasury International Capital Report
- 16. Industrial Production: Keeping the Assembly Lines Running
6. Fed Watching: The Best for Last
19. The Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
- What Is Monetary Policy?
- The Fed’s Monetary Policy Tools
- Yes, There Is an FOMC Cycle
- The Discount Rate
- Brand-New Policy Tool: The Fed Pays Interest on Reserves
20. Fed Reports on the FOMC Meeting
- Key Facts About the Beige Book
- Key Facts About the FOMC Meeting Statement
- Key Facts About the FOMC Meeting Minutes
- The Fed’s Economic Forecast
- Fed Forecasts over Time
21. More Fed Reports and Quantitative Easing
- Key Facts About the Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Key Facts About the Discount Rate Meeting Minutes
- Quantitative Easing and the Fed’s Balance Sheet
- Key Facts About Money Supply
22. What Financial Markets Tell Us About Fed Policy
- So, What Are Fed Funds Futures?
- The Implied Fed Funds Futures Rate
- Charting Implied Fed Funds for the Big View
- Yield Curves Tell You What Bond Traders Think About Fed Policy
- The “Real” Fed Funds Rate
- So, How Do I Come Up with Real Fed Funds?
- The TED Spread: Is the Fed Soothing the Markets?
- 19. The Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
Economic Indicators Glossary
- Title: The Complete Idiot’s Guide® To: Economic Indicators
- Release date: October 2009
- Publisher(s): Alpha
- ISBN: 9781592579228