The Crash Course, Revised Edition

CHAPTER 27The Bumpy Path to 2030

The next 20 years are going to be completely unlike the last 20 years.

—Chris Martenson, 2008

I penned that statement in 2008. It is now clear, here in August of 2022, that these words were prophetic. Europe is going through the greatest energy crisis of any major industrialized nation ever. It is being shocked by the fastest price hikes for natural gas and electricity costs ever witnessed. The price charts are perfectly exponential and are truly shocking to observe. And it's not yet winter.

My crystal ball that allowed me to foresee these difficulties was the framework I've just shared with you. It's really not that difficult once you set aside the noise of irrelevant data (“Solar is now cheaper than coal!” “Electric car sales are up 43%!”) and focus on the big picture of net energy and can link that to how complex systems use energy to foster greater complexity and more order.

The road to 2030 is now laid before us. It's going to be a rough and bumpy ride. For those who can follow the logic and think for themselves—that is, break away from the inherent centrism of popular culture and press—this is not necessarily bad news. Hey, bad luck can strike anyone at any time, but, as they say, chance favors the prepared.

Far too many people are completely unprepared for what's coming. They lack the framework to appreciate what's really going on and/or they may lack the emotional ability to adjust to the emerging reality in time to have a better go ...