Chapter Five

Move the needle

Anticipate regression to the mean

The universe is change; our life is what our thoughts make it.41

BENEFITS OF THIS MENTAL TACTIC

Understanding regression to the mean will remind you that most outcomes stem from skill and luck.42 It will encourage you to try and figure out how much of each played a role in a particular outcome. This is important for a number of reasons.

  1. It helps assess your outcomes When skill is involved, a relatively small sample size is sufficient to judge the person or process that lead to an outcome (take chess, for example, which is hard to win by being just lucky). But if more luck is involved, then you will have to look at a much larger group.
  2. It allows you to forecast results Once ...

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