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The Energy World is Flat: Opportunities from the End of Peak Oil

Book Description

A stronger, more informed approach to the energy markets

The Energy World Is Flat provides a forward-looking analysis of the energy markets and addresses the implications of their rapid transformation. Written by acknowledged expert Daniel Lacalle, who is actively engaged with energy portfolios in the financial space, this book is grounded in experience with the world of high-stakes finance, and relays a realist's perspective of the current and future state of the energy markets. Readers will be brought up to date on the latest developments in the area, and learn the strategies that allow investors to profit from these developments. An examination of the markets' history draws parallels between past and current shifts, and a discussion of technological advancements helps readers understand the issues driving these changes.

Energy has always been at the forefront of the economic agenda, being both the key to and a driver for development and growth. Its centrality to the world of finance makes it imperative for investors and analysts to understand the energy markets, irrespective of where on the wide range of energy spectrum observers they fall. The Energy World Is Flat is a guide to the past, present, and future of these crucial markets, and the strategies that make them profitable. These include:

  • Understanding the state of the energy markets, including key developments and changes

  • Discovering the ten pillars of a successful energy investment strategy

  • Reviewing the history of the energy markets to put recent changes into perspective

  • Learning which technologies are driving the changes, and how it will affect investors

  • The recent energy market changes were both unexpected and so fundamental in nature that they represent a true shift in the energy macro- and microeconomic landscape. Investors and analysts seeking a stronger approach to these markets need the expert guidance provided by The Energy World Is Flat.

    Table of Contents

    1. Title Page
    2. Copyright
    3. Dedication
    4. Disclaimer
    5. Chapter One: The Mother of All Battles. The Flattening and Globalization of the Energy World
      1. Nuclear politics
      2. The sustained spike in natural gas prices
      3. Fracking and the collapse in US natural gas prices
      4. US tight oil
      5. Geopolitics and high crude oil prices
      6. Expensive oil, cheap natural gas
      7. The market does not attack, it defends itself
      8. Winners and losers
      9. Notes
    6. Chapter Two: Lessons from the Internet Revolution and the Dotcom Bubble
      1. The bubble path
      2. Think “against the box”
      3. Lessons not to forget
      4. Notes
    7. Chapter Three: The 10 Forces that are Flattening the Energy World
      1. Is the energy world flat?
    8. Chapter Four: Flattener #1 – Geopolitics: The Two Sides of the Energy Security Coin
      1. The oil weapon
      2. The gas weapon
      3. Notes
    9. Chapter Five: Flattener #2 – The Energy Reserves and Resources Glut
      1. What energy scarcity?
      2. Reserves and resources
      3. Crude oil concentration, but no shortage
      4. OPEC almighty
      5. Reserve protectionism
      6. Marginal cost of production
      7. The “unconventional” resources
      8. Discoveries vs. additions: “can we rely on finding new oil fields?”
      9. Sorry, no peak oil
      10. No peak gas either
      11. Notes
    10. Chapter Six: Flattener #3 – Horizontal Drilling and Fracking
      1. Never bet against an engineer
      2. Technology increases volume
      3. Technology reduces costs
      4. Innovation vs. imitation
      5. “Fracking” and horizontal drilling
      6. Myths and realities of shale gas and tight oil
      7. Notes
    11. Chapter Seven: Flattener #4 – The Energy Broadband
      1. Pipelines open new markets
      2. LNG and the globalization of natural gas
      3. Storage bottlenecks and commodity islands
      4. Shipping, floating pipelines and storage
      5. Notes
    12. Chapter Eight: Flattener #5 – Overcapacity
      1. Déjà-Vu
      2. Diplomatic demand outlook
      3. Saudi Arabia heavy sour crude oil
      4. Location, location, location
      5. Pro-cyclical behaviour
      6. Notes
    13. Chapter Nine: Flattener #6 – Globalization, Industrialization, and Urbanization
      1. Testing the hypothesis of “Ever-Increasing” demand
      2. The “Diplomatic” demand clause
      3. Notes
    14. Chapter Ten: Flattener #7 – Demand Destruction
      1. More with less
      2. The “Invisible Hand” of efficiency
      3. The “Visible Hand” of efficiency
      4. Note
    15. Chapter Eleven: Flattener #8 – Demand Displacement
      1. The battle for transportation demand
      2. What the production engineers missed
      3. The “Challengers”
      4. The end of crude oil's monopoly in transportation
      5. The new frontier: hydrogen fuel
      6. “Who killed the electric car?”
      7. The battle for electricity and industrial demand
      8. The energy domino
      9. Notes
    16. Chapter Twelve: Flattener #9 – Regulation and Government Intervention
      1. The role of the government
      2. Regulation vs. free markets
      3. The virtuous mix of regulation and free markets
      4. The vicious mix of regulation and politics
      5. Carrot and stick
      6. Privatization and deregulation are not the same
      7. Independence of the regulator
      8. The political cycle is too short
      9. The war on pollution and coal
      10. The war on pollution
      11. The war on coal
      12. Renewable energy and the disinflation of power prices
      13. The world of wind power is becoming flat
      14. The world of solar power is far from flat
      15. Biofuels and Food Inflation
      16. Notes
    17. Chapter Thirteen: Flattener #10 – Fiscal, Monetary, and Macroeconomic Flatteners
      1. The “OPEC put”
      2. Energy consumption in producing countries
      3. Mortgaged future production
      4. The paradox of plenty
      5. The oil tax weapon
      6. Monetary experiments and the credit risk time bomb
      7. Monetary experiments
      8. Financial flows. Let's blame the speculators
      9. Notes
    18. Chapter Fourteen: Implications and Opportunities in the Financial Markets
      1. Concluding Remarks
      2. Notes
    19. For A Competitive European Energy Policy
      1. The Oil Price War: Another Chapter in the Mother of All Battles
    20. Index
    21. End User License Agreement